Much like the existence of Area 51 and the authenticity of your local shopping mall Santa, the New England Patriots acquiring A.J. Brown is one of history's worst-kept secrets. The trade worked out well for both sides as the Patriots were able to plan for their new WR1 before he was on the team, and waiting until June 1st allowed the Eagles to save on dead cap this season. For a good breakdown of AJ Brown's contract, including the financial implications of this trade, check out this article by Jason Fitzgerald from Over the Cap. I won't dig into that as much as I will the fantasy football implications for both the 2026 season and for dynasty rosters.

Impact: AJ Brown and the Patriots

Much of the reaction to this trade is the renewed ceiling for DeVonta Smith in Philly. I'm dubious, but we'll get there. What about the renewed upside for AJ Brown? No longer is he trapped in the lowest-volume passing offense across the league (the Eagles have been bottom-10 in pass attempts in each of the past 2 seasons). Brown now joins Drake Maye, a young MVP candidate and the best deep passer in football in 2025, whose dire need for a true alpha wideout has seemingly been filled.

While everyone seems to think AJ Brown is a shell of his former self, I don't think that label is well-placed. Still only 29, Brown is coming off a 1000-yard season that was much maligned as the Eagles' offense saw their fair share of dysfunction. I think the issue in Philly was effort and motivation, not a declining skillset.

With motivation seemingly in spades now that he's joined his childhood team, I think AJ Brown is in for a big season.

Despite the poop-coloured lenses we see his 2025 season through, AJ Brown still managed to be 7th best in YPRR vs. man coverage (2.97) and 23rd best in YPRR vs. zone coverage (2.02) among wide receivers. Furthermore, he posted a 0.24 targets per route against zone (t-17th) and a 0.35 tprr vs. man coverage last season, so this is a guy (drink!) who is still both heavily targeted and highly efficient when he gets the ball.

To look at the match with Drake Maye, look no further than Maye's numbers against Man coverage in 2025 (below). May was a stone-cold demon when opposing defenders locked onto his pass catchers, and his case to keep that going just got stronger.

This trade doesn't do a ton for his fantasy football stock based on the fact that Drake Maye will certainly be a top 2 quarterback in my 2026 rankings, and he's already our consensus Dynasty QB1. It further solidifies that take and keeps us bullish on his #1 target for at least another few years.

A.J. Brown's prospects have become much more rosy. Not necessarily by adding a ceiling, but by increasing the weekly floor that could lead to at least the ceiling we saw during his time in Philly. Last season's playcalling was a part of Brown's lack of brotherly love. Looking at his route tree, you can see some of what unfolded.

• 23.3% (105 of 450) of AJ Brown's routes were out-breaking (Out, Flare, Flat). On these routes, he averages only 0.93 TPRR and 0.37 YPRR.

• Only 5.5% (25 of 450) of AJ Brown's routes were either Comebacks or Mid/Deep crossers. It's certainly a small sample, but on those routes, he averaged an astronomical 0.70 TPRR and 7.6 YPRR.

Brown's frustration would make sense if you conclude that his play caller did him no favours in calling plays that put him in the best place to succeed. AJ Brown isn't what you'd call a separator, so it makes no sense to run him on the shorter out-breaking stuff as opposed to the more downfield alpha work that he thrives on.

In New England, he should see more of that, as New England had 7 receivers run more crossing routes alone than did AJ Brown. Josh McDaniels certainly knows his way around a play sheet, manning the sidelines for countless prolific offenses under Tom Brady.

In Dynasty, A.J. Brown is difficult to evaluate. His perception is that of a WR nearing the age cliff, but the reality is that he's primed to remain a top-10 producer with upside to burn on that for at least another 2 years attached to Drake Maye. We talked about him on a recent episode of Dynasty Underground, where we ranked him in the mid-to-late 20s, but acknowledged the upside he still has. Gauging his market will depend on your confidence in the near-term. I could see a contending team putting out feelers to buy, not for the long haul, but for the short-term pay-off. If I'm rebuilding, I'm selling to the highest bidder on this news. If someone needs a title run WR, this is it. I'd almost mirror the Eagles' price and try to net a 2028 first-round pick and a young player with a path to success. If you're logged into otcffb.com, check out the Trade Ideas tool, where our site will suggest trades for your leagues if you're trying to move off. In the meantime, here are some recent trades, including A.J. Brown.

For 2026, my first blush rankings have Brown at WR9, 2 spots behind ECR. If he stays healthy, I think a conservative projection of 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns is in line.

Impact: Eagles Pass Catchers

Renewed vigor has been the overall perception of how this trade impacts Eagles' wide receivers, namely DeVonta Smith. I can see that path, but my confidence in the likelihood may not be so strong.

It's an interesting group, with Smith, Makai Lemon, and either Dontayvion Wicks or Hollywood Brown coming in as the top 3 wideouts. They've also got 2 capable Tight Ends in Dallas Goedert and rookie Eli Stowers, who are both sure to factor in. Having no true X receiver, it would figure we'll see plenty of movement under the new Offensive Coordinator Sean Mannion.

Mannion's coaching history is not long. He spent the past 2 years on the Packers' staff as an offensive assistant in 2024 and as Quarterbacks coach in 2025. We could go down a Packers' offense rabbit hole, but he never called plays there, so I don't think it's wise to use that to project his offense in Philly. I hope that what he brings from his time in Green Bay with Matt Lafleur is the creativity to get his playmakers in good positions to make plays.

Projecting the Eagles' target distribution isn't as simple as "DeVonta Smith is a locked-in WR1" for me. He seems to be in line for more outside work, but I'm not sure it would behoove the Eagles to do that. As you can see below, Smith played outside a ton early in his career, and the results were less than stellar. As he began to play more slot, his production out wide took a major upturn, but that resulted in his previously elite slot work to dip. The biggest takeaway doesn't necessarily indicate how he'll be used, but the fact that he can be successful in both roles.

What I think this means is that, along with having no true X receiver, the Eagles probably don't have a true slot receiver. By skillset, Makai Lemon projects to work from the slot early, but for 2 reasons, I don't think that will be his final evolution. Firstly, Makai Lemon isn't a slot-only WR. He played 27.9% of his snaps out wide in 2025 at USC, so he'll blossom into his own versatility in time. The other reason is the Eagles' arsenal of slot-capable weaponry. Along with Smith and Lemon, I anticipate Dontayvion Wicks, Dallas Goedert, and Eli Stowers to see their share of snaps both in the slot and out wide.

Versatility like that is a good problem to have from a real football perspective, but it creates uncertainty for us as fantasy gamers. I still have DeVonta Smith as a mid-range WR2 with a conservative ranking of WR21 for the 2026 season, with potential for that to rise as we lead up to the season. As for the other weapons, I think the rest of these pass catchers will spread the additional targets fairly evenly. Dontayvion Wicks, with his size, likely gets the nod in 2-wide sets along with DeVonta Smith, so I think the Eagles would need to change their philosophy to more 3-wide for us to see a stellar debut season from Makai Lemon. I don't think that's going to happen with the presence of Goedert and the addition of Eli Stowers.

Stowers projects as the move TE2 behind Dallas Goedert. And much like Goedert with Zach Ertz, I think Stowers will have to get in line to become a core piece of the passing attack outside of 2-TE sets. Dallas Goedert is no slouch off the ball himself, so he won't be relegated to "inline blocker only", and he'll be the 1 when there's only 1 Tight End on the field. What Goedert is in line for, in my opinion, is to get back in the ranks of the top Tight Ends. Entering a contract year, Goedert remains one of the best Tight Ends in the league after the catch, and his prowess in the red zone will be paramount with the departure of AJ Brown. I've got Goedert as my TE10 for the 2026 season, and I'd be buying him in Dynasty where the price is right. Our Trade Values have him at almost half the value of the 2026 2.03. I would run to the podium to trade him for any 2026 2nd except for the 2.01 or 2.02 (Coleman or Singleton).

Stowers, as I said, will likely have to wait and develop his blocking substantially if he wants to take this job in 2026. I'd really be looking to 2027 when Goedert is potentially out of the picture, and buying Stowers after 2026. With that said, there will be multiple times throughout this season where we see Eli Stowers flash why he was drafted in the 2nd round.

If you want the TLDR, DeVonta Smith has a strong season, but not a nuclear blow-up. Makai Lemon has a subdued rookie season as he gains trust in 2-wide sets. Dallas Goedert is primed for a top-10 season heading into a contract year, and Eli Stowers will need some time to marinate, but we will see flashes of what he can do as a pass catcher.

The reality is, nothing suggests there will be a huge increase in passing volume from the Eagles. It's certainly possible, but with how effective this rushing attack has been over the past few years, I can't recommend that we attach to my Birds as a high-flying passing attack.

All of the advanced metrics from this article are courtesy of our friends at Fantasy Points and their Data Suite.

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